Rofilah Khasanatun Daroini (1), Khusnul Hitaminah (2), Abdur Rohim (3)
General Background: HIV/AIDS remains a multidimensional public health issue affecting legal, social, economic, and healthcare systems at global, national, and regional levels. Specific Background: In response to increasing HIV/AIDS concerns, the Probolinggo Regency Government enacted Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016 as a legal framework for HIV/AIDS prevention and control through preventive, curative, and rehabilitative programs. Knowledge Gap: Previous studies have largely emphasized medical and public health perspectives, while limited empirical legal research has examined the implementation of regional HIV/AIDS regulations and the practical challenges faced by local governments. Aims: This study aims to analyze the implementation of HIV/AIDS prevention and control policies in Probolinggo Regency and identify obstacles encountered in applying Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016. Results: Using an empirical legal method with a socio-legal approach, the study found that the local government implemented public education programs, Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) services, Antiretroviral Therapy (ART), psychosocial assistance, and cross-sector coordination involving the Health Office and the AIDS Prevention Commission. However, policy implementation remains constrained by limited financial resources, inadequate healthcare personnel, weak inter-agency coordination, uneven healthcare access, insufficient monitoring systems, and persistent social stigma and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS. Novelty: This research integrates normative and empirical legal analysis while specifically examining the implementation of a regent regulation within the local context of Probolinggo Regency. Implications: The findings highlight the importance of strengthening institutional coordination, improving resource allocation, expanding healthcare accessibility, and increasing community awareness to support sustainable HIV/AIDS governance at the regional level.
Highlights:
Keywords: Local Policy, HIV/AIDS, Local Government
The problem of HIV/AIDS is one of the global health issues that to this day still remains a serious concern, not only at the international level but also nationally and regionally.[1] The spread of HIV/AIDS not only impacts the health aspect but also touches on social, economic, and legal dimensions. In Indonesia, the increasing number of HIV/AIDS cases from year to year shows that efforts to combat it still face various complex challenges. The government has enacted various regulations as a manifestation of its commitment to combating HIV/AIDS at both the national and regional levels.[2] Local governments play a strategic role in implementing policies because they are more directly connected to the community and have a deeper understanding of local social conditions. Probolinggo Regency, as one of the regions in East Java Province, also encounters HIV/AIDS issues that demand serious attention. To respond to these challenges, the regional government enacted Probolinggo Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016 concerning the Prevention and Control of HIV and AIDS.[3] This regulation serves as the legal basis for the implementation of various HIV/AIDS prevention and control programs in the region. However, the implementation of this policy does not always run optimally as expected. There are still various obstacles from structural, cultural, and technical aspects that affect the effectiveness of the policy. Therefore, it is important to examine in more depth the efforts of the local government in implementing this policy. This study is expected to provide a real picture regarding the implementation of the policy at the regional level. Thus, this research becomes relevant to be conducted in order to evaluate the policy that has been carried out.
Research on HIV/AIDS prevention has actually been conducted extensively by various academics and practitioners. Several previous studies show that the success of HIV/AIDS prevention is greatly influenced by policy factors, government support, and community participation. Research conducted by various researchers indicates that a community-based approach and cross-sector collaboration are key in reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS.[4] In addition, other studies highlight the importance of education and socialization as effective preventive efforts. Previous research also emphasizes that social stigma against people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) remains a major obstacle in mitigation efforts. On the other hand, there are studies that examine the implementation of HIV/AIDS policies in several regions and find gaps between regulations and practices in the field. Some of these studies use a normative approach that focuses more on the analysis of legislation. Meanwhile, research with an empirical approach is still relatively limited, particularly that which focuses on the level of local government. Previous studies have also not extensively examined the implementation of policies based on regional head regulations. In addition, studies that raise the local context of Probolinggo Regency are still very minimal. Therefore, more in-depth and specific research is needed regarding the implementation of policies in the region. This is important to provide a more contextual and current picture.[5] Thus, this research is relevant for complementing the shortcomings in previous studies.
Although numerous studies concerning HIV/AIDS have been conducted, several research gaps still require further attention. Most previous research has primarily concentrated on medical and public health perspectives, resulting in limited discussion of legal and regional policy dimensions. Furthermore, studies examining policy implementation are often broad in scope and do not specifically address regional regulations. Another existing gap is the limited number of studies that combine empirical approaches with Many studies only highlight legal norms without looking at the reality of their implementation in the field. Conversely, there are also studies that are empirical but do not sufficiently relate them to the applicable legal framework. This causes the resulting analysis to be less complete and does not provide a comprehensive picture. In addition, research that specifically examines the implementation of Regent Regulations as a regional policy instrument is still very limited. In fact, regional head regulations play an important role in the implementation of policies at the local level. Another gap is the lack of empirical data related to the obstacles faced by local governments in implementing these policies. Therefore, research is needed that can bridge this gap. This study aims to integrate normative and empirical analysis simultaneously. Thus, it is hoped that the results of this study can provide a more comprehensive contribution.
This research offers several novel aspects that distinguish it from earlier studies. First, it specifically analyzes the implementation of Probolinggo Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016 as the legal foundation for HIV/AIDS management at the regional level. Second, the study adopts an empirical approach supported by field data to examine how the policy is implemented in practice. Third, the research not only evaluates the measures undertaken by the local government but also identifies the various challenges faced during implementation. Fourth, this study combines legal and social perspectives within a comprehensive analytical framework. Fifth, the research emphasizes the local context of Probolinggo Regency, which possesses unique social and cultural characteristics. Sixth, the study seeks to assess policy effectiveness based on actual field conditions. Seventh, it also takes into account the roles of multiple stakeholders, including the government, healthcare professionals, and the community, in addressing HIV/AIDS issues. Eighth, the study presents up-to-date and relevant data reflecting current conditions. Ninth, it provides recommendations derived from empirical findings. Therefore, this research is expected to contribute new insights to the development of legal scholarship, particularly in the areas of health law and public policy. Furthermore, it is also anticipated to serve as a valuable reference for future studies.
The urgency of this research is based on the increasing complexity of HIV/AIDS issues, which require comprehensive and integrated handling. HIV/AIDS is not only a health problem but also relates to social, economic, and legal aspects. Therefore, effective and implementable policies are needed to address these problems. Local governments, as the forefront of policy implementation, have a significant responsibility in ensuring the success of HIV/AIDS mitigation programs. However, in practice, various obstacles are often encountered that hinder the implementation of these policies. These obstacles can include budget limitations, lack of human resources, and low public awareness. In addition, stigma and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) also become separate challenges that are difficult to overcome. Without a comprehensive evaluation, the policies that have been made have the potential not to run optimally. Therefore, this research becomes important to be conducted in order to understand the extent to which existing policies have been implemented. In addition, this research is also important to identify factors that become obstacles in the implementation of these policies. The results of this research are expected to serve as evaluation material for local governments. Thus, existing policies can be improved and their effectiveness increased. Ultimately, this research is expected to contribute to efforts in combating HIV/AIDS more effectively.
The purpose of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the policy efforts undertaken by the Probolinggo Regency Government in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS based on Probolinggo Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016. Furthermore, this study seeks to identify the various challenges encountered in the implementation of these policies. It is expected to provide a comprehensive understanding of how such policies are executed in practice. Another objective of the research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the policies implemented by the local government. The study also aims to analyze the consistency between existing legal norms and their practical application. In addition, this research is anticipated to contribute to the advancement of legal scholarship, particularly in the fields of health law and public policy. Another purpose is to offer constructive recommendations to local governments for enhancing policy effectiveness. The research further intends to increase public awareness regarding the importance of HIV/AIDS prevention. Moreover, it is expected to become a useful reference for future researchers interested in exploring similar issues. Thus, this research has objectives that are not only academic but also practical. Ultimately, this research is hoped to provide broad benefits for various parties. With the achievement of these goals, it is expected that efforts to combat HIV/AIDS can run more optimally.
This research uses an empirical legal research method with a socio-legal approach, which examines law not only as written norms, but also as behavior that develops in society.[6] The type of research used is qualitative descriptive research, which aims to provide a systematic, factual, and accurate depiction of the implementation of regional government policies in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS. The approaches applied in this study include the statutory approach and the sociological approach. The statutory approach is carried out through the examination of various legal regulations related to HIV/AIDS, particularly Probolinggo Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016. Meanwhile, the sociological approach is employed to analyze how these policies are implemented in practice within society. This research was conducted in Probolinggo Regency as the study location, considering its relevance to the subject matter under investigation. The selection of the research location was based on the presence of regional policies that specifically regulate HIV/AIDS mitigation. This study also seeks to examine the conformity between applicable legal norms and the reality of their implementation in the field. Thus, this research combines normative and empirical analysis comprehensively. It is expected that this will produce more in-depth and contextual findings.
The data sources in this study consist of primary data and secondary data. Primary data were obtained directly from the field through interviews with informants who are related to the implementation of policies, such as the AIDS Commission (KPA), healthcare workers, and other relevant parties. Informants were selected using a purposive sampling technique, which is based on the consideration that the informants have knowledge and experience relevant to the study. In addition, secondary data were obtained from various sources such as laws and regulations, books, scientific journals, previous research results, as well as official documents related to HIV/AIDS prevention and control. This secondary data serves to support and complement the primary data obtained from the field. The use of these two types of data aims to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the research object. In addition, secondary data is also used as a basis for conducting normative analysis of the policies being studied. Thus, the combination of primary and secondary data is expected to be able to enhance the validity of the research results. Diverse data sources also allow researchers to perform data triangulation. This is important to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the information obtained. With this approach, the research results are expected to be more scientifically accountable.[7]
The data collection techniques in this study were carried out through several methods, namely interviews, documentation, and observation. Interviews were conducted in-depth (in-depth interviews) with selected informants to explore information related to policy implementation and the challenges faced. Interviews were conducted in both structured and semi-structured formats so that the data obtained would be more flexible and comprehensive.[8] In addition, the documentation technique was carried out by collecting various documents related to the research, such as regional regulations, activity reports, and statistical data related to HIV/AIDS. This documentation is used to complement the data obtained from interviews. Observations were also conducted to directly see the conditions in the field, especially regarding the implementation of the HIV/AIDS prevention program. These observations aim to obtain a real picture of policy implementation. To maintain data validity, this study used triangulation techniques, which involve comparing data from various sources and methods. In addition, the member check technique was carried out by reconfirming the interview results with the informants. The researcher also used the technique of prolonged participation in the field to increase data trustworthiness. Thus, the data obtained is expected to have a high level of validity and reliability.
The data analysis method employed in this research is descriptive qualitative analysis. The collected data are analyzed through several stages, including data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion drawing. Data reduction is conducted by selecting and concentrating on information that is relevant to the research questions. Subsequently, the data are presented in a systematic narrative format to facilitate understanding.The final stage is drawing conclusions, which is done inductively based on the results of the data analysis. In the analysis process, the researcher also interprets the data by relating it to relevant theories and regulations. This analysis aims to examine the conformity between legal norms and practices in the field. In addition, the researcher also identifies certain patterns that emerge from the obtained data. The results of this analysis are then used to answer the formulation of the research problem. In order to maintain the validity of the analysis results, the researcher also conducts a cross-check of the analyzed data. This process is carried out repeatedly to ensure the consistency of the research results. Thus, the obtained research results are expected to have a high level of accuracy. This approach also allows the researcher to produce an in-depth and comprehensive analysis.[9]
The policy measures undertaken by the Probolinggo Regency Government in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS are founded upon Probolinggo Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016, which functions as the juridical framework for implementing programs at the regional level. This regulation comprehensively governs prevention strategies, control efforts, and the responsibilities of various stakeholders in addressing the spread of HIV/AIDS. In practice, the regional government, through relevant institutions such as the Health Office and the AIDS Prevention Commission (KPA), implements a range of programs that encompass preventive, curative, and rehabilitative approaches. [10] This policy reflects a holistic approach that not only focuses on medical aspects but also social and cultural aspects. In addition, this policy also emphasizes the importance of cross-sector collaboration in combating HIV/AIDS. However, the effectiveness of implementing this policy highly depends on coordination among agencies and community participation. Therefore, an analysis of the efforts of this policy needs to be carried out comprehensively. This aims to assess the extent to which the policy has been implemented in accordance with the regulations. Thus, the level of success of this policy in combating HIV/AIDS in Probolinggo Regency can be determined.
In the area of prevention, the local government has undertaken various initiatives aimed at minimizing the spread of HIV/AIDS. One of the primary measures involves conducting public outreach and educational programs regarding the risks of HIV/AIDS and methods of prevention. These awareness campaigns are implemented through different forms of media, both direct and indirect, including counseling sessions in schools, workplaces, and community organizations. In addition, the government also encourages increasing public awareness of healthy and safe living behaviors. Prevention programs also include campaigns on the use of protective equipment and education about reproductive health. Furthermore, early screening is conducted through voluntary HIV testing services (Voluntary Counseling and Testing/VCT). This VCT program aims to detect individuals at risk of HIV infection at an early stage.[11] This prevention effort is also strengthened by a community-based approach that involves community leaders. Thus, it is expected that public awareness of HIV/AIDS can increase significantly. However, the level of public participation still remains a challenge in the implementation of this program.
Next, in the aspect of mitigation (curative), the local government focuses on providing adequate health services for people with HIV/AIDS (PWHA). These services include examination, treatment, and the provision of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy continuously.[10] Local governments, through health facilities such as community health centers and hospitals, strive to provide easy and affordable access to services for the public. In addition, healthcare personnel are provided with specialized training to enable them to handle HIV/AIDS patients in a professional manner. This treatment program is intended to enhance the quality of life of people living with HIV/AIDS while also preventing further transmission of the disease. The government likewise ensures the confidentiality of patients’ status as part of the protection of human rights. Moreover, efforts have been undertaken to broaden access to healthcare services in remote areas. This is essential to guarantee that all members of society are able to obtain adequate healthcare services. In carrying out these initiatives, the government also cooperates with various stakeholders to support the continuity and effectiveness of the treatment program. In its implementation, the government also collaborates with various parties to support the sustainability of the treatment program.
In terms of rehabilitation and social aspects, the local government strives to reduce stigma and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Social stigma is one of the main obstacles in tackling HIV/AIDS because it can prevent individuals from undergoing testing and treatment.[12] Therefore, the government carries out various efforts to increase public acceptance of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Social rehabilitation programs are implemented through psychosocial support and economic empowerment initiatives for People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). In addition, the government promotes the participation of families and communities in providing support to PLWHA. These initiatives are intended to enhance the quality of life of PLWHA and enable them to remain active and productive members of society. Furthermore, anti-discrimination campaigns are conducted to transform public perceptions and attitudes. Such programs are expected to foster a more inclusive social environment. Nevertheless, changing societal stigma requires a significant amount of time. Therefore, these efforts must be undertaken in a continuous and consistent manner.
In addition, regional government policies also emphasize the importance of institutional roles and cross-sector coordination in HIV/AIDS prevention and control. In this regard, the AIDS Commission (KPA) has a strategic role as a coordinator in program implementation. KPA is tasked with coordinating various activities carried out by both government and non-government agencies.[13] In addition, the Health Department plays a role as the main executor in the provision of health services. Collaboration is also carried out with the education sector, social sector, as well as civil society organizations. This cross-sectoral approach aims to create synergy in combating HIV/AIDS. Moreover, local governments also encourage active community participation in supporting existing programs. Good coordination between institutions is key to the success of policy implementation. However, in practice, coordination problems between agencies are still found. This can affect the effectiveness of program implementation. Therefore, strengthening institutions and creating better coordination mechanisms are necessary. Thus, policy implementation can run more optimally.
Overall, the policy initiatives undertaken by the Probolinggo Regency Government in preventing and controlling HIV/AIDS reflect a strong commitment to tackling this issue. The policies set forth in Probolinggo Regent Regulation Number 25 of 2016 encompass various essential aspects of HIV/AIDS management. Nevertheless, the implementation of these policies continues to encounter a number of challenges that must be addressed. The effectiveness of the policies is greatly influenced by internal and external factors, including resources, coordination, and community participation. Therefore, periodic evaluation of the implementation of these policies is necessary. In addition, there is a need to improve the capacity of human resources and supporting facilities. Local governments also need to strengthen cooperation with various parties in the implementation of programs. Thus, it is hoped that efforts to combat HIV/AIDS can run more effectively and sustainably. The results of this analysis show that good policies must be followed by optimal implementation. Without effective implementation, policy objectives will not be achieved to the fullest. Therefore, improvements in policy implementation are very important.
In the implementation of HIV/AIDS prevention and control policies based on the Regent of Probolinggo Regulation Number 25 of 2016, the Regional Government of Probolinggo Regency faces various obstacles that affect the effectiveness of program implementation. Although normatively the regulation has comprehensively regulated strategies for HIV/AIDS control, in practice there are still multidimensional challenges. These obstacles include structural, cultural, juridical, and operational technical aspects that are interconnected. This condition indicates a gap between das sollen (normative provisions) and das sein (implementation reality). These various obstacles not only affect program achievements, but also impact the sustainability of policies. Therefore, identifying these constraints is important to do as a basis for policy evaluation. By identifying the existing obstacles, local governments are able to formulate more targeted and effective improvement strategies. The analysis of these challenges also demonstrates that the success of a policy is influenced not only by its legal substance, but also by various non-legal factors. This is consistent with the empirical legal approach, which views law as a social phenomenon. Therefore, the discussion of these obstacles constitutes an essential aspect in evaluating the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS prevention and control policies within the region.
One of the main challenges faced is structural constraints, particularly related to the limited resources available to local governments.[14] Budget limitations become an obstacle in the implementation of various HIV/AIDS prevention and control programs. Limited fund allocation and the effects of budget efficiency for government MBG programs result in not all programs being able to be implemented optimally and sustainably. In addition, the number of healthcare workers with special competencies in handling HIV/AIDS is still limited. This situation affects the quality of services delivered to the community, particularly for People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). Moreover, disparities in access to healthcare services between urban and rural areas still persist. As a result, certain members of the community experience difficulties in obtaining the healthcare services they require. In this regard, limited resources constitute a major factor influencing the effectiveness of policy implementation. Consequently, greater budget allocation and the enhancement of human resource capacity are necessary. Without sufficient structural support, the implementation of these policies will struggle to achieve optimal outcomes.
In addition to structural obstacles, there are also cultural obstacles arising from social and cultural factors of the community. Stigma and discrimination against people living with HIV/AIDS still remain major barriers in efforts to combat HIV/AIDS.[15] Society tends to have a negative view of people living with HIV/AIDS, which causes them to be reluctant to disclose their health status. This situation contributes to the low level of public participation in HIV/AIDS testing and treatment programs. In addition, certain social and cultural values also shape the way communities perceive and respond to HIV/AIDS-related issues. Limited public understanding of HIV/AIDS gives rise to various misconceptions and misunderstandings. This condition is further aggravated by the belief that HIV/AIDS is closely associated with deviant behavior. Consequently, the socialization and educational initiatives implemented by the government often fail to receive an optimal response from the community. In addition, factors of trust and local values also affect the effectiveness of prevention programs. In some cases, communities prefer alternative treatments over medical services. This certainly poses a challenge for the government in raising public awareness. Therefore, a more adaptive and community-based cultural approach is very much needed. Without a change in public mindset, efforts to combat HIV/AIDS will be difficult to achieve success.
The next obstacle is the juridical and institutional constraints, which are related to regulatory aspects and coordination between agencies. Although there is already the Regent Regulation of Probolinggo Number 25 of 2016 as a legal basis, in its implementation there are still weaknesses in policy synchronization. Some programs that are implemented are not yet fully integrated with policies at the provincial or national levels. In addition, the distribution of tasks and authorities between agencies has not yet run optimally. Coordination between agencies such as the Health Office, the AIDS Prevention Commission (KPA), and other agencies still faces various obstacles.[16] The lack of communication and coordination has resulted in overlapping programs and even implementation gaps across several sectors. Furthermore, the absence of an effective monitoring mechanism presents an additional challenge in the execution of policies. This condition makes it difficult to accurately assess the level of program success. In this regard, institutional weaknesses constitute one of the factors that impede policy effectiveness. Therefore, strengthening coordination systems and policy integration among institutions is essential. In addition, existing regulations need to be evaluated to ensure their relevance and compatibility with actual conditions in the field. Through these measures, policy implementation can be carried out in a more systematic and effective manner.
Furthermore, there are operational technical obstacles related to the implementation of programs in the field. These challenges include the limited accessibility of healthcare services for communities, particularly those living in remote areas. Long travel distances and inadequate transportation facilities constitute major barriers preventing people from accessing healthcare services. In addition, insufficient information regarding available healthcare services also hinders community access. Uneven dissemination and socialization programs have resulted in not all members of society receiving adequate information about HIV/AIDS. Furthermore, technical difficulties are also encountered in program implementation, such as the uneven distribution of antiretroviral (ARV) medication. In certain instances, delays in drug distribution occur, which may disrupt the continuity of patient treatment. Moreover, the system for recording and reporting HIV/AIDS data remains suboptimal, creating difficulties in program monitoring and evaluation. Limitations in technology and information systems also present obstacles to effective data management. In this context, operational and technical constraints represent significant challenges that require immediate attention. Therefore, improvements in infrastructure and supporting systems in program implementation are required. Thus, services to the public can be carried out more effectively and efficiently.
Overall, the various obstacles faced by the Probolinggo Regency Government indicate that the implementation of HIV/AIDS mitigation policies still requires significant improvement. Structural, cultural, juridical, and technical constraints interact with and influence each other. This condition demonstrates that efforts to address HIV/AIDS require a comprehensive and integrated approach. Relying solely on regulations is insufficient; effective implementation must also be supported by adequate resources, public awareness, and strong coordination among relevant institutions. Therefore, the local government needs to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the policies that have already been implemented. In addition, measures to strengthen institutional capacity and enhance community participation are essential. By overcoming the various existing obstacles, it is expected that policy implementation can be carried out more effectively. This is important to achieve the primary goal of the policy, which is to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS. Thus, existing policies can provide maximum benefits to the community. The results of this analysis confirm that the success of a policy is greatly determined by the ability to overcome various existing obstacles. Therefore, systematic and sustainable improvement measures are very much needed.
Based on the results of the research and discussion, it can be concluded that the policy efforts of the Regional Government of Probolinggo Regency in the prevention and management of HIV/AIDS, based on the Regent of Probolinggo Regulation Number 25 of 2016, have shown a fairly strong normative commitment in addressing HIV/AIDS problems at the regional level. The implementation of these policies is realized through various programs that are preventive, curative, and rehabilitative in nature, such as socialization and education to the public, HIV testing services (VCT), provision of antiretroviral therapy (ARV), as well as social assistance for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). In addition, the involvement of various institutions such as the Health Office and the AIDS Control Commission (KPA) indicates efforts for cross-sectoral coordination in policy implementation. However, when viewed from the perspective of the theory of legal effectiveness and policy implementation, the execution of the policy has not yet run optimally. This is caused by the gap between normative provisions (das sollen) and the reality in the field (das sein), so that the policy objectives have not been fully achieved.
Furthermore, in its implementation, the Regional Government of Probolinggo Regency still faces various multidimensional challenges, including structural, cultural, juridical, and operational technical constraints. Limited budgets, human resources, as well as facilities and infrastructure are the main obstacles in the structural aspect. On the other hand, societal stigma and discrimination against PLHIV reflect the still low legal culture of the community, which affects participation in prevention and treatment programs. In addition, challenges in inter-agency coordination and the suboptimal monitoring and policy integration system indicate weaknesses in the institutional aspect. Technical obstacles such as limited access to health services and the distribution of medicine also affect the effectiveness of programs in the field. Thus, it can be concluded that the success of policies is not only determined by the existence of regulations but also by implementation factors involving various supporting aspects. Therefore, comprehensive and continuous improvement efforts are needed, both through strengthening resources, enhancing institutional coordination, and changing societal culture, so that HIV/AIDS mitigation policies can operate more effectively and achieve the expected goals.
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